Wrong. Very wrong. Unless you like train wrecks. The disconnect between the actors’ guild and the studio positions on new media is one of the major issues gumming up the current (non)negotiations. The AMPTP / SAG talks aren’t getting the kind of press outside of LA that the widely covered writer’s guild strike received, but the concern amongst the theatrical and TV creative communities is widespread. Casting is dead on life-support, actors are at home (not David Lawrence), studio projects are on hold and an agent friend of mine said he is telling actors that “their job is to call their SAG reps and demand that the union give up their losing fight and close a deal.” So all this pent-up creative energy will flow freely onto the web, disintermediate the oligopolistic studio distribution machine and move the needle on web entertainment economics, just like what happened with the WGA strike, right? Sadly no. In fact, the WGA strike, despite the increased awareness that it afforded to the online cause by being fought openly in the press, was not good for the overall digital community. It didn’t help establish any direct distribution pipeline for content. It didn’t increase CPMs or provide a more effective set of measurement tools for advertisers. It didn’t last long enough to truly disrupt conventional studio distribution or consumer viewing patterns. It didn’t incent technology investments to move forward and allow for more stable streaming of better quality content. It didn’t set precedents for ownership and rights management that would lead to greater artistic choice in content creation. What it did was put the bug in the ear of the guilds to sniff out any and all digital productions and put an onerous task on low-budget content creators to adhere to outdated union models of financial reporting and tracking. It fatigued the creative community and set the stage for SAG to fold its position despite hoping to save face. Here’s the bottom line: the timeline for the development of a sustainable web economy for entertainment content will be defined by the studio conglomerates on their terms and on their schedule. It’s their pain that is being mitigated by moving distribution to online. It’s their windows that are collapsing and it’s their content that is being cannibalized. The studios are the locomotives that drive the economics of entertainment and media. They move slowly, but once started they have inertia. A union holdout will only serve to delay the train from leaving the station. On the other hand, the railroad industry missed the boat when it came to transitioning to consumer airplane transportation. We don’t have Amtrak Airlines. We’re in purgatory. We can’t move from this holding pattern until the flies get out of the ointment and let the big players define the business models. The studios have the leverage and we should let them lead or die trying. They’re the owners of the premium content, the premium distribution and the bulk advertising dollars are also the ones who have massive influence over the vital, peripheral players. Think the FCC, think private equity, think cable operators, think ISPs, think data analytics and research groups like Nielsen and most of all, think Apple and Google, These players all need to be aligned in order to develop a sustainable web economy. In the meantime, create, own, build relationships with smart power players, don’t give anything away and call your SAG rep to tell them to close the deal already!